News

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December 2018 Update

It is pretty much a given, that if you were in the walnut business this past year, you’ve seen happier times. However, if you’ve been in the business for a while, you’ve probably seen worse. That’s why once again, it is with sincere gratitude and appreciation that we here at Turlock Walnut Company acknowledge your loyalty. Realizing that you have choices for processing, it is considered a privilege to be the chosen company to help in the handling of your valuable commodity.

As stated in the past, we consider it a team effort on both sides, from the grower taking extreme care of the trees to the processing we do, the recipe for success. There were some very exciting things going on here at Turlock Walnut Company in 2018. With the opening of our new facility. Hopefully you were here for the luncheon we hosted to reveal the new plant. Remember, if you would like another tour, or know of another interested grower, please contact us and we’ll set you up. 

Referrals are always welcome! Also, keeping in mind that communication is crucial in all aspects of any business, never hesitate to reach out to our team here at TWC if we can in anyway help you and your business thrive.

California Walnut Inventory (Inshell Tons)

• Carry-in from 2017 Crop Year: 63,539
• 2018 Walnut Receipts: 658,035
• Total Inventory: 721,574
• Shipments through November 30 th 214,662
• Remaining Inventory: 506,912

Walnut Shipments by Region September 1 st – November 30th , 2018:

Shelled:

• North America is up 5.5 million pounds or +9.63%
• Europe is down 6.3 million pounds or -21.07%
• Asia/Pacific Rim is down 5.4 million pounds or -23.26%
• Middle East/Africa is up 3.7 million pounds or +73.26
  In-shell:
• North America is down 1.4 million pounds or -9.45%
• Europe is down 10.8 million pounds or -16.63%
• Middle East/Africa is up 3.4 million pounds or +4.63%
• Asia/Pacific Rim is down 18.4 million pounds or -44.66%

November 2018 Walnut Shipment Report Update

• November 2018 shipments were 96,507 in-shell equivalent tons. For the month of November 2018 shipments decreased by 3,091 tons (-3%) compared to November 2017.
• September 1 st , 2018 to November 30 th , 2018 in-shell equivalent tons shipped are 214,662. A decrease of 16,203 tons (-7%) compared to the same period in the 2017/2018 Marketing Year.
• In-shell shipments for November 2018 were 81,785,000 pounds, an increase of 2,305,000 pounds (+3%) compared to November 2017.
• Season to date in-shell shipments (September 1 st, 2018 – November 30 th , 2018) are 171 million pounds, a decrease of 27 million pounds (-13.5%) compared to the same period in the 2017/2018 Marketing Year.
• Shelled shipments for November 2018 were 49 million pounds, a decrease of 3.7 million pounds (-7%) compared to November 2017.
• Season to date shelled shipments (September 1 st , 2018 – November 30 th , 2018) are 114 million pounds, a decrease of 2.5 million pounds (-2%) compared to the same period in the 2017/2018 Marketing Year.

Countries with big increases/decreases in imports September 1 st – November 30th ,

2018:

Shelled

• USA shelled up 674,465 pounds or +3.40%
• Canada shelled down 329,809 pounds or -14.49%
• Germany shelled down 2,697,741 pounds or -41.28%
• Spain shelled up 311,509 pounds or +10.32%
• UAE shelled up 890,622 pounds or +126.76%
• Israel shelled up 606,530 pounds or +45.68%
• Japan shelled down 1,963,701 pounds or -45.16%
• Korea shelled down 2,221,440 pounds or -43.25%

In-Shell

• Italy in-shell down 684,313 pounds or -5.81%
• Spain in-shell down 2,092,919 pounds or -56.53%
• Lebanon in-shell up 297,534 pounds or 15.69%
• Morocco in-shell down 220,920 pounds or -17.89%
• Pakistan in-shell up 4,311,854 pounds or +488.35%
• Turkey in-shell up 2,798,272 pounds or +11.82%
• UAE in-shell up 3,054,771 pounds or +36.33%
• China in-shell down 1,764,619 pounds or -59.81%
• Hong Kong in-shell down 1,949,015 pounds or -55.48%
• India in-shell down 3,657,877 pounds or -50.00%
• Vietnam in-shell up 551,249 pounds or +12.61%

Market Recap

June 2018 – August 2018 shipment numbers were flat compared to 2017. These
shipments have allowed the carry-in to get to a reasonable number of 63,539 tons or
7,563 more tons compared to the previous crop year carry-in but still lower than the
2014 and 2015 carry-in totals.
Receipts through November are 658,035 tons. I believe most buyers and packers
thought this number would be in the 660,000 to 670,000 ton range with all of us
hoping we didn’t hit 690,000 tons as this was what CASS had estimated and the
consensus was that we would fall short of that. However, shipment numbers are
down year over year with In-shell equivalent tonnage shipped through November
down 16,000 tons or 7.02%. The late harvest is also part of the reason why season to
date shipment numbers are down.
Looking at just the year over year November numbers we are still down 3.10%. At
some point this will need to improve to hold prices where they are. We started with a
larger carry-in and have surpassed last year’s crop by 30,240 tons so shipment
numbers need to improve.

The Tulare crop was strong this year with most growers up in tonnage over the prior

year with good color. Most growers who thought their Chandler crops looked down

were right. The Chandler crop came in light with many growers down in tonnage

except for the young orchards. Chandler color was excellent again with most lots at

90+ in light color. Edible Yields were down in all regions and I don’t think anyone has

an answer as to the reason why. I’d say the average edible yield on a Chandler was

down about 2%.

Current market prices have bounced slightly off the lows seen in September and

October and have leveled off for the past six weeks while moving only a few cents up

or down. So far there has not been enough positive data to move prices higher.

As you can see by market and region the tariffs are having an impact on shipments to

most regions. China, Hong Kong, and India are all down while Turkey surprisingly is

up 11.82% from last year. While these markets are down other routes of trade are

up. Vietnam is up 12.61% as a route into China and Pakistan is up 488.35% as a

route into India.